Assessment of Residential Real Estate Investment Performance in Lafia Metropolis, Nigeria

Abstract

Investors are expected to be guided through investment performance measurement and analysis in order to safeguard against potential loss of investment returns or the capital invested. Whereas residential real estate (RRE) constitutes a significant part of the portfolios of individual and institutional investors across the globe, the assessment of risk-return performance of RRE investment in Nigeria generally has not been well researched. Investors in real estate (RE) in the Lafia city of Nasarawa State, like other cities in Nigeria, still rely on mere intuition, sales comparison and the rule of thumb in real estate investment decisions-making. Consequently, these ill-informed investors often venture into poorly conceived and subsequently financially disastrous real estate investment projects thereby failing to achieve their desired investment objectives. Hence, this research was conducted to evaluate the performances of RRE investment in Lafia metropolis of north-central Nigeria with a view to guiding existing and potential real estate investors and practitioners in the region in making informed property investment decision. A survey research design was adopted to collect transacted residential property value data from estate surveying and valuation firms as well as reputable estate agent offices in the study area. Mean scores, property value index and holding period return model were used to analyse the rental/capital value indices and total return performance respectively. The modified value-at-risk model was used to assess risk while the modified Sharpe ratio was used to evaluate the risk-return performance of RRE investment performance in the study area. The research findings revealed, among others, a progressive increase in rental and capital values of RRE within the study period. RRE investment showed an average rental growth of 6.8% per annum and capital value growth of 9.4% per annum. On the basis of investment returns, it was found that Angwan Doka outperformed other selected neighbourhoods in the study area with an average mean total return and risk-adjusted return of 13.76% and 0.80% per annum respectively while Shabu underperformed other locations with average mean total return and risk-adjusted return of 12.17% and 0.55% per annum. The study recommended, among others, that potential real estate investors should consider investing in residential real estate in Angwan Doka since this location gives higher total and risk-adjusted returns on residential property investment relative to other locations in the city.